Oleksandria 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Oleksandria welcome Ruh Lviv to KSK Nika. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at KSK Nika: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Oleksandria 1.00 PPG, Ruh Lviv 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 0 for Ruh Lviv and 7 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 46% versus Ruh Lviv 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 46% | Ruh Lviv 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.95 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.928 / defence 1.123 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.644 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.341. Data: 43 Oleksandria games / 43 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 34% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 35%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Ruh Lviv 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Ruh Lviv 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 34% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Oleksandria 0.95 / Ruh Lviv 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.928 / def 1.123 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.644 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ruh Lviv xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Oleksandria 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 34% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
Record (7 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 7 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (0.93) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
34%
2.97
32%
3.16
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
1.92
0.97
Ruh Lviv xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.97 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 22W 11D 10L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 2.14 PPG from 21 outings (14W 3D 4L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 6W 6D 9L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oleksandria are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.95 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Oleksandria's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.14 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Oleksandria's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
7
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv?
From 9 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-3 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 43%, Ruh Lviv 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Oleksandria) and 19% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 38%; Ruh Lviv in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 29% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Oleksandria's recent games and 19% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Oleksandria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Oleksandria 0-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.95 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.64 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 34% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 35%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Ruh Lviv 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Ruh Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.