Oleksandria vs Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Oleksandria welcome Lviv to KSK Nika. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 3L across 7 games at KSK Nika this term (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lviv's away record: 3W 1D 4L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Oleksandria) versus 1.40 (Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for Lviv and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (18 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lviv in-play and half-time data (18 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 44% versus Lviv 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 39% | Lviv 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.42 xG and Lviv 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.980 / defence 1.046 | Lviv attack 0.762 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.218. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Oleksandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Oleksandria games / 18 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 47% | Draw 27% | Lviv 26%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Lviv 3.85. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 43% | Lviv 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 47% | Draw 27% | Lviv 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Oleksandria 1.42 / Lviv 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.980 / def 1.046 | Lviv attack 0.762 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Lviv xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Lviv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at KSK Nika.
Where is Oleksandria vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Lviv part of?
Oleksandria vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 47% chance of winning, Lviv a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Oleksandria and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 1 | Lviv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Lviv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lviv's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.73
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.39
0.97
Lviv xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.97 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 7W 5D 6L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv's form line: 4W 5D 9L from 18 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.94 PPG overall record — Lviv travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Lviv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Lviv have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Lviv away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.71 PPG; Lviv away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lviv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Oleksandria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Lviv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2023, when Lviv 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Lviv?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lviv tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 43%, Lviv 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Oleksandria) and 29% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Lviv in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 43% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Oleksandria's recent games and 29% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Lviv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lviv in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oleksandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria and Lviv finished level at 0-0 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.42 xG and Lviv 0.97 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Lviv attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 47% | Draw 27% | Lviv 26%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 39%, Lviv 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (18 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.