FC Kharkiv 1-6 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Zorya Luhansk travel to Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 4W 0D 2L at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zorya Luhansk stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.60 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Zorya Luhansk in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 42% versus Zorya Luhansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 50% | Zorya Luhansk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.89 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.166 / defence 1.109 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.361 / defence 1.535. League average goals — home 1.059 / away 1.131. Zorya Luhansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.535 — this is suppressing FC Kharkiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Zorya Luhansk have an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 FC Kharkiv games / 12 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 42% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Zorya Luhansk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 50% | Zorya Luhansk 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 42% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.89 / Zorya Luhansk 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.166 / def 1.109 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.361 / def 1.535 | league avg home 1.059 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Zorya Luhansk xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 6 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 42% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Kharkiv's attack at 1.17x the league average against Zorya Luhansk's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zorya Luhansk's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.25
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
3.60
1.71
Zorya Luhansk xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.71 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 6W 1D 5L from 12 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 3L across 12 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.58 PPG, Zorya Luhansk on 1.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 3W 1D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.80 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Zorya Luhansk specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
1
Draws
5
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 40%, Zorya Luhansk 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC Kharkiv and 80% for Zorya Luhansk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Zorya Luhansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of FC Kharkiv's games and 80% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 80% of Zorya Luhansk's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zorya Luhansk run riot with a 1-6 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat FC Kharkiv 1-6 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.89 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.71 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 1.71 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.17 / defence 1.11 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.36 / defence 1.53, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 42% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 34%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Zorya Luhansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 50%, Zorya Luhansk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.58 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.