FC Kharkiv 0-0 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Oleksandria travel to Stadion Kovalivka to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 April 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadion Kovalivka — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Oleksandria — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (FC Kharkiv) versus 1.20 (Oleksandria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Oleksandria and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 35% versus Oleksandria 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 46% | Oleksandria 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.97 xG and Oleksandria 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.786 / defence 1.562 | Oleksandria attack 0.842 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.260. FC Kharkiv's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 FC Kharkiv games / 37 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 22% | Draw 24% | Oleksandria 53%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Oleksandria 1.89. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 40% | Oleksandria 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Kovalivka • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 22% | Draw 24% | Oleksandria 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Kharkiv 0.97 / Oleksandria 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.786 / def 1.562 | Oleksandria attack 0.842 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Oleksandria xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stadion Kovalivka.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 0 Oleksandria.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kovalivka.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 22% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Record (2 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.79) and Oleksandria's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
22%
4.51
24%
4.09
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.63
1.66
Oleksandria xG
4.51
22%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
4%
23.70
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.66 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 10D 18L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.57 PPG from 37 outings (15W 13D 9L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 6W 2D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (4W 9D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.41 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 15W 13D 9L in their last 37 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.18 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.24 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Oleksandria have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 41%, Oleksandria 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (FC Kharkiv) and 47% (Oleksandria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 41% of games; Oleksandria in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 65% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 47% of Oleksandria's.
Do FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kovalivka, Regular Season - 21, as FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.97 xG and Oleksandria 1.66 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.79 / defence 1.56 against Oleksandria attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 22% | Draw 24% | Oleksandria 53%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 46%, Oleksandria 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.