FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Oleksandria travel to Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 4W 0D 4L at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Oleksandria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC Kharkiv) versus 1.20 (Oleksandria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Oleksandria and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Oleksandria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Kharkiv trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 39% versus Oleksandria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 44% | Oleksandria 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG and Oleksandria 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.972 / defence 1.237 | Oleksandria attack 0.780 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.225. Data: 18 FC Kharkiv games / 18 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Oleksandria 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Kharkiv 50% | Oleksandria 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.18 / Oleksandria 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 0.972 / def 1.237 | Oleksandria attack 0.780 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Oleksandria xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 36% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (0.97) and Oleksandria's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.58
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.37
1.18
Oleksandria xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
11%
9.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.18 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Kharkiv come into this having played 18 games, going 6W 1D 11L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.06 PPG, Oleksandria on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Kharkiv's home form reads 4W 0D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (1W 5D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Oleksandria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.06 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 1D 11L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Oleksandria away?
FC Kharkiv's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.50 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Kharkiv have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2023, when Oleksandria won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
3
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 2, Oleksandria have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 50%, Oleksandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Kharkiv) and 25% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 38%; Oleksandria in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 50% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 25% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Kharkiv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oblasny SportKomplex Metalist, Regular Season - 29, as FC Kharkiv and Oleksandria drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.18 xG and Oleksandria 1.18 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Kharkiv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 0.97 / defence 1.24 against Oleksandria attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 36% | Draw 28% | Oleksandria 36%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 44%, Oleksandria 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 1.06 PPG, Oleksandria 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.