FC Kharkiv 1-3 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Kryvbas KR travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on FC Kharkiv in Premier League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Kharkiv stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

FC Kharkiv's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Kryvbas KR — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kryvbas KR — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. FC Kharkiv's 30% BTTS rate and Kryvbas KR's 20% (from FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Kryvbas KR and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2023, ended FC Kharkiv 0–2 Kryvbas KR — a Kryvbas KR win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

FC Kharkiv trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.

Kryvbas KR trading profile (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 31% of FC Kharkiv's games and 36% of Kryvbas KR's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 33% | Kryvbas KR 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.85 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 0.925 / defence 0.860 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.245 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.169. Kryvbas KR have an above-average attack rating of 1.245, which lifts their away xG to 1.25. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 39 games and Kryvbas KR's last 40.

Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 24% | Draw 32% | Kryvbas KR 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 4.18 | Draw 3.14 | Kryvbas KR 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Kharkiv's last 10 home games and Kryvbas KR's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 30% (last 10 home games) | Kryvbas KR 20% (last 10 away games).

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