Lviv 0-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lviv welcome Oleksandria to Stadion SKIF in Premier League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lviv — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Lviv have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Oleksandria have recorded 1W 8D 1L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Oleksandria's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Oleksandria's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lviv's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Lviv, 1 for Oleksandria and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2022, ended Lviv 0–2 Oleksandria — a Oleksandria win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lviv trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 48% versus Oleksandria 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 42% | Oleksandria 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lviv surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Oleksandria have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.01 xG and Oleksandria 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.805 / defence 1.162 | Oleksandria attack 0.725 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.252. Oleksandria's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Lviv's last 41 games and Oleksandria's last 40.
Result probabilities: Lviv 34% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 36%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.97 | Draw 3.28 | Oleksandria 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lviv 50% (last 10 home games) | Oleksandria 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 34% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lviv 1.01 / Oleksandria 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.805 / def 1.162 | Oleksandria attack 0.725 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Oleksandria xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lviv vs Oleksandria FAQs
What time does Lviv vs Oleksandria kick off?
Lviv vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Lviv 0 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Lviv vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Oleksandria part of?
Lviv vs Oleksandria is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 34% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lviv and Oleksandria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lviv vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.81x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lviv's last 41 games and Oleksandria's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
34%
2.97
30%
3.28
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.07
1.05
Oleksandria xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lviv vs Oleksandria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lviv and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lviv and 1.05 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Lviv have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 7W 8D 25L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Oleksandria's form line: 15W 15D 10L from 40 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lviv have posted 0.70 PPG from their last 20 home games (3W 5D 12L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 4W 10D 6L from their last 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.32 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
Lviv (Home) vs Oleksandria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lviv
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Lviv vs Oleksandria Form FAQs
What form are Lviv and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 7W 8D 25L in their last 40 games (0.72 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 15W 15D 10L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.70 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Lviv or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Oleksandria have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Lviv's record when hosting Oleksandria specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
1
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Lviv vs Oleksandria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Oleksandria?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Lviv have won 0, Oleksandria have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lviv and Oleksandria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2023: Lviv 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 55%, Oleksandria 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lviv) and 45% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 40% of games; Oleksandria in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lviv vs Oleksandria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lviv and Oleksandria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Lviv's games and 60% of Oleksandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lviv and Oleksandria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lviv's recent games and 45% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lviv and Oleksandria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Lviv's recent matches and 40% of Oleksandria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Lviv 0-1 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.01 xG and Oleksandria 1.05 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lviv fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Oleksandria attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 34% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 36%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 42%, Oleksandria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.72. Form held, and they took the win. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.