Lviv vs Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lviv at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lviv vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 27 as Lviv welcome Chornomorets to Stadion Ukrajina. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lviv have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadion Ukrajina — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Ukrajina this season.
Chornomorets — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Lviv) versus 0.90 (Chornomorets). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lviv register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Chornomorets in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lviv have won 0, Chornomorets 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lviv trading profile (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chornomorets trading profile (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 56% versus Chornomorets 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 39% | Chornomorets 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.21 xG and Chornomorets 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.862 / defence 1.207 | Chornomorets attack 0.819 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.224. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Lviv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Lviv games / 18 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 36% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 36%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Chornomorets 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lviv 60% | Chornomorets 62% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Ukrajina • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 36% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Lviv 1.21 / Chornomorets 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.862 / def 1.207 | Chornomorets attack 0.819 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Chornomorets xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Chornomorets kick off?
Lviv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadion Ukrajina.
Where is Lviv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukrajina.
What competition is Lviv vs Chornomorets part of?
Lviv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 36% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lviv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Lviv and Chornomorets in?
Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lviv's attack rating (0.86) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.64
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.42
1.21
Chornomorets xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lviv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lviv and 1.21 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lviv's recent record stands at 4W 5D 9L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 10L across 18 games — 0.78 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lviv on 0.94 PPG, Chornomorets on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.11 scored and 2.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 4W 5D 9L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Chornomorets away?
Lviv's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.75 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lviv and Chornomorets runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Chornomorets have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Chornomorets?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2023, when Lviv 0-1 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 62%, Chornomorets 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for Lviv and 88% for Chornomorets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 38% of games; Chornomorets in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lviv's games and 62% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lviv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Lviv's matches and 88% of Chornomorets's.
Do Lviv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lviv's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv and Chornomorets finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Ukrajina, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.21 xG and Chornomorets 1.21 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 1.28, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 36% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 36%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 39%, Chornomorets 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chornomorets's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lviv 0.94 PPG, Chornomorets 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.