LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.50 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 1 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 44% | Shakhtar Donetsk 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.70 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.838 / defence 1.139 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.379 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.268. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 LNZ Cherkasy games / 54 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 12% | Draw 21% | Shakhtar Donetsk 67%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 12% | Draw 21% | Shakhtar Donetsk 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 44% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.70 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.838 / def 1.139 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.379 / def 0.745 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 3 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 12% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 67% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (1 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 0W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 0.84x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
12%
8.69
21%
4.72
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.5%
Away win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.69
1.99
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
8.69
12%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
14%
7.33
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
2%
63.69
34%
2.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.99 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 9W 9D 9L from 27 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 20W 4D 3L across 27 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 4W 3D 6L from 13 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 9W 3D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.15 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 9W 9D 9L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 20W 4D 3L in their last 27 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.15 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.31 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
4
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 77% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 54%, Shakhtar Donetsk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 62% (Shakhtar Donetsk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 8% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk in 46%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 54% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of LNZ Cherkasy's matches and 62% of Shakhtar Donetsk's.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-3 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.70 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.99 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.38 / defence 0.74, drawn from 25/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 12% | Draw 21% | Shakhtar Donetsk 67%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 44%, Shakhtar Donetsk 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.