LNZ Cherkasy 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as LNZ Cherkasy face Obolon'-Brovar.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Cherkasy Arena in Premier League (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record over their last 5 away games: 2W 0D 3L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 1.10 (Obolon'-Brovar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 27% of LNZ Cherkasy's games and 27% of Obolon'-Brovar's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 46% | Obolon'-Brovar 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.819 / defence 1.191 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.713 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.220. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 11 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 11.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (LNZ Cherkasy's last 7 home games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 5 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 57% (last 7 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 20% (last 5 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.819 / def 1.191 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.713 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
LNZ Cherkasy 3 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 32% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (0.82) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 11 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
32%
3.12
32%
3.12
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
1.99
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 14.1 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.03 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 3D 6L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 0.82 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across their last 5 home games, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 5 away games (2W 0D 3L).
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games; Obolon'-Brovar in 27%.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Obolon'-Brovar in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Obolon'-Brovar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Obolon'-Brovar's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 0.80 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.20 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2023, when LNZ Cherkasy won LNZ Cherkasy 3-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
2
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 4, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: LNZ Cherkasy 3-1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 60%, Obolon'-Brovar 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 20% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 40% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 20% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 20% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 40% of Obolon'-Brovar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.03 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Obolon'-Brovar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 32% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 46%, Obolon'-Brovar 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 0.82 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.