Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vorskla Poltava make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kolos Kovalivka have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Kolos, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Kolos this season.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Kolos Kovalivka's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Kolos Kovalivka 2W, Vorskla Poltava 3W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Kolos Kovalivka winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Kolos Kovalivka half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 32% versus Vorskla Poltava 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 20% | Vorskla Poltava 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.82 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.713 / defence 0.978 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.907 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.081. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Kolos Kovalivka games / 56 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 33% | Vorskla Poltava 37%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Vorskla Poltava 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Kolos Kovalivka's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kolos Kovalivka (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 40% | Vorskla Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 33% | Vorskla Poltava 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.82 / Vorskla Poltava 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.713 / def 0.978 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.907 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Vorskla Poltava xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 30% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (6 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 2W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 3W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.71) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.91x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
30%
3.39
33%
3.00
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.78
0.96
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 16.2 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.96 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 13W 21D 22L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 15W 12D 29L from 56 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Kolos Kovalivka against 1.02 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 0.81 PPG from 27 outings (3W 13D 11L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 8W 6D 13L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.93 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 13W 21D 22L in their last 56 games (1.07 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 15W 12D 29L in their last 56 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 0.81 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
2
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 30%, Vorskla Poltava 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Kolos Kovalivka and 37% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 59% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 44% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 37% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Kolos Kovalivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.82 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.96 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 30% | Draw 33% | Vorskla Poltava 37%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 20%, Vorskla Poltava 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.07 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.