Kolos Kovalivka 2-0 Minai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Minai travel to Stadion Kolos to take on Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kolos Kovalivka stand at 1W 7D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Minai have recorded 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Minai's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Kolos Kovalivka are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Kolos Kovalivka have won 1, Minai 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2023, ended Kolos Kovalivka 0–1 Minai — a Minai win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Minai trading profile (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 28% versus Minai 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 26% | Minai 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.03 xG and Minai 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.769 / defence 0.829 | Minai attack 0.723 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.184. Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Minai's attack rating of 0.723 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 43 games and Minai's last 43.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 41% | Draw 35% | Minai 24%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 2.43 | Draw 2.84 | Minai 4.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Minai's lower xG of 0.71 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and Minai's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 10% (last 10 home games) | Minai 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai | Competition: Premier League, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 41% | Draw 35% | Minai 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.03 / Minai 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.769 / def 0.829 | Minai attack 0.723 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Minai xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 10 November 2023 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai?
Kolos Kovalivka 2 - 0 Minai.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai is a Premier League fixture (matchday 14) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 41% chance of winning, Minai a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Minai will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka's attack at 0.77x the league average against Minai's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Minai's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 43 games and Minai's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
41%
2.43
35%
2.84
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
1.74
0.71
Minai xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Minai expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.71 for Minai, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 13W 14D 16L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Minai's form line: 8W 15D 20L from 43 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kolos Kovalivka on 1.23 PPG, Minai on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 21 home games (7W 5D 9L).
On the road, Minai have gone 5W 6D 10L from their last 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Minai are on 0.65 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Minai
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs Minai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Minai
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Minai in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 13W 14D 16L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Minai have gone 8W 15D 20L in their last 43 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Minai away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.24 PPG; Minai away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Minai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Minai in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 19 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Minai specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
2
Draws
2
Minai
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Minai?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Minai have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Minai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 May 2024: Minai 3-2 Kolos Kovalivka.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Minai see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 24%, Minai 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Kolos Kovalivka and 33% for Minai.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 43% of games; Minai in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Minai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Minai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and Minai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 48% of Minai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and Minai matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 33% of Minai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Minai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 52% of Minai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Minai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Minai 2-0 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.03 xG and Minai 0.71 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.77 / defence 0.83 against Minai attack 0.72 / defence 1.19, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 41% | Draw 35% | Minai 24%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 26%, Minai 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Minai's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.23 PPG, Minai 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.