Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Lviv travel to Stadion Kovalivka to take on Kolos Kovalivka. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 June 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Kolos Kovalivka's home record at Stadion Kovalivka: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lviv — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Lviv have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Kolos Kovalivka carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Kolos Kovalivka, 1 for Lviv and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Kolos Kovalivka winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lviv trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 30% versus Lviv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 32% | Lviv 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.39 xG and Lviv 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.833 / defence 1.127 | Lviv attack 0.756 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.211. Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Kolos Kovalivka games / 47 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 45% | Draw 27% | Lviv 28%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Lviv 3.57. Kolos Kovalivka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 40% | Lviv 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Kovalivka • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 45% | Draw 27% | Lviv 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.39 / Lviv 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.833 / def 1.127 | Lviv attack 0.756 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lviv xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Stadion Kovalivka.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Kolos Kovalivka 1 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kovalivka.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 45% chance of winning, Lviv a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 1W | Draws 0 | Lviv 1W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Lviv (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.83) and Lviv's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.71
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.42
1.03
Lviv xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.03 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 16W 9D 22L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Lviv's form line: 7W 9D 31L from 47 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Kolos Kovalivka are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (8W 2D 12L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 4W 3D 15L from 22 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.68 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Current Season
Lviv
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Lviv have gone 7W 9D 31L in their last 47 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Lviv away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.18 PPG; Lviv away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lviv in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kolos Kovalivka have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
0
Draws
1
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Kolos Kovalivka 1-0 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 36%, Lviv 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Kolos Kovalivka) and 32% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 36% of games; Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 36% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 32% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Lviv tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lviv in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kolos Kovalivka edge out Lviv 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Lviv 1-0 at Stadion Kovalivka, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.39 xG and Lviv 1.03 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Lviv attack 0.76 / defence 1.42, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 45% | Draw 27% | Lviv 28%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 32%, Lviv 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lviv's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.