Inhulets 1-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Inhulets plays host to Inhulets versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 26 November 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Inhulets have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inhulets have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stadion Inhulets — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Inhulets 0W, Veres Rivne 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Inhulets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 50% versus Veres Rivne 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 50% | Veres Rivne 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.11 xG and Veres Rivne 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.814 / defence 0.920 | Veres Rivne attack 1.220 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.192. Veres Rivne have an above-average attack strength of 1.220 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Inhulets games / 32 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 31% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 42%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Veres Rivne 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 40% | Veres Rivne 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 31% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Inhulets 1.11 / Veres Rivne 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.814 / def 0.920 | Veres Rivne attack 1.220 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Veres Rivne xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Inhulets vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Stadion Inhulets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Inhulets 1 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne part of?
Inhulets vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 31% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Inhulets and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Veres Rivne in?
Inhulets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.81x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (1.22x) against Inhulets's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 30/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.68
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.45
1.34
Veres Rivne xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.34 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Inhulets come into this having played 30 games, going 5W 8D 17L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (11W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Inhulets's home form reads 4W 2D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 1.43 points per game from 14 outings (6W 2D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inhulets are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.07 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 5W 8D 17L in their last 30 games (0.77 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Veres Rivne away?
Veres Rivne's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
3
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Veres Rivne?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-0 Veres Rivne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 43%, Veres Rivne 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Inhulets) and 43% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 36% of games; Veres Rivne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Inhulets's recent matches and 43% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Inhulets's recent games and 43% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Inhulets defy the odds to beat Veres Rivne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Veres Rivne 1-0 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.11 xG and Veres Rivne 1.34 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Veres Rivne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Veres Rivne attack 1.22 / defence 1.05, drawn from 30/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 31% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 42%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Inhulets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 50%, Veres Rivne 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Inhulets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.