Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Inhulets welcome Ruh Lviv to Stadion Zirka. Kick-off is set for Thursday 16 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Stadion Zirka this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 1W 2D 6L from 9 away outings — 0.56 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Inhulets) versus 1.00 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Inhulets in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 41% versus Ruh Lviv 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Inhulets 47% | Ruh Lviv 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.09 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.765 / defence 1.059 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.750 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.210. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Inhulets games / 17 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 38% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 31%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Ruh Lviv 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 38% | Ruh Lviv 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Zirka • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 38% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Inhulets 1.09 / Ruh Lviv 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.765 / def 1.059 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.750 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ruh Lviv xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 16 December 2021 at Stadion Zirka.
Where is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zirka.
What competition is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 38% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Inhulets and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.77) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.30
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.05
0.96
Ruh Lviv xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.96 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Inhulets have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 3W 4D 10L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.76 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inhulets have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ruh Lviv's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.94 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Inhulets's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ruh Lviv have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when Ruh Lviv won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inhulets's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Inhulets
0
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
From 4 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 38%, Ruh Lviv 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Inhulets and 12% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 50% of games; Ruh Lviv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Inhulets's recent matches and 38% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Inhulets's recent games and 12% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Inhulets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Zirka, Regular Season - 11, as Inhulets and Ruh Lviv drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.09 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.96 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inhulets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.77 / defence 1.06 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.75 / defence 1.28, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 38% | Draw 30% | Ruh Lviv 31%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 47%, Ruh Lviv 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.76 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.