Inhulets 2-1 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Inhulets take on Livyi Bereh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inhulets host Livyi Bereh at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at CSC Nika, Inhulets have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at CSC Nika. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Livyi Bereh — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Livyi Bereh away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Inhulets at 1.10 PPG versus Livyi Bereh's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Inhulets's 10% and Livyi Bereh's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Inhulets have won 0, Livyi Bereh 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Inhulets in-play tendencies (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play tendencies (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Inhulets 30% | Livyi Bereh 22%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Inhulets 37% | Livyi Bereh 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.78 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.516 / defence 1.077 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.624 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.019. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.516 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Livyi Bereh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Inhulets games / 27 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 33% | Draw 39% | Livyi Bereh 28%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Livyi Bereh 3.57. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Livyi Bereh's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 10% | Livyi Bereh 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 33% | Draw 39% | Livyi Bereh 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 28% | xG Inhulets 0.78 / Livyi Bereh 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.516 / def 1.077 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.624 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.019 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Livyi Bereh xG
28%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 12 May 2025 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh?
Inhulets 2 - 1 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 33% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 28% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Inhulets and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Livyi Bereh?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Livyi Bereh in?
Inhulets (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.52x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
39%
2.58
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.46
0.69
Livyi Bereh xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.63
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.2 | 15.9 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.8%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.69 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inhulets's recent record stands at 4W 8D 15L from 27 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 16L across 27 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inhulets on 0.74 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 3W 2D 7L from 12 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Inhulets are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.59 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inhulets have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Livyi Bereh in 22%.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 4W 8D 15L in their last 27 games (0.74 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 6W 5D 16L in their last 27 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Inhulets's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.92 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inhulets and Livyi Bereh runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Inhulets
1
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2025, when Inhulets 2-1 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Livyi Bereh?
Inhulets have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Inhulets 8% BTTS, Livyi Bereh 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Inhulets and 33% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 33%; Inhulets have failed to score in 67% of games; Livyi Bereh in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 8% of Inhulets's recent matches and 17% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Inhulets's recent games and 33% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inhulets edge out Livyi Bereh 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Livyi Bereh 2-1 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.78 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.69 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Inhulets beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.52 / defence 1.08 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.62 / defence 1.30, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 33% | Draw 39% | Livyi Bereh 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Inhulets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 37%, Livyi Bereh 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 26%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.74 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inhulets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.