Inhulets 1-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Chornomorets to face Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inhulets's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Chornomorets have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Inhulets lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Chornomorets winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inhulets — key trading statistics (19 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (19 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 37% versus Chornomorets 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 42% | Chornomorets 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.11 xG and Chornomorets 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.697 / defence 1.082 | Chornomorets attack 1.070 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 0.899. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Inhulets games / 50 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 37% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 33%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Chornomorets 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Inhulets as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 0% | Chornomorets 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 37% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Inhulets 1.11 / Chornomorets 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.697 / def 1.082 | Chornomorets attack 1.070 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.242 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chornomorets xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Chornomorets kick off?
Inhulets vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Inhulets 1 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Inhulets vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Chornomorets part of?
Inhulets vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 37% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Inhulets and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
Record (4 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 2 | Chornomorets 2W.
What form are Inhulets and Chornomorets in?
Inhulets (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inhulets's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (1.07x) against Inhulets's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 19/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.39
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.15
1.04
Chornomorets xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.04 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Inhulets come into this having played 19 games, going 2W 6D 11L for 0.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.79 PPG from 19 outings (4W 3D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.63 PPG for Inhulets against 0.79 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Inhulets's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Inhulets are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.74 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 games (0.63 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Chornomorets away?
Inhulets's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.75 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
2
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Chornomorets have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Inhulets 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 0%, Chornomorets 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Inhulets) and 100% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Inhulets's recent matches and 75% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Inhulets's recent games and 100% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inhulets edge out Chornomorets 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat Chornomorets 1-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.11 xG and Chornomorets 1.04 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Chornomorets attack 1.07 / defence 1.28, drawn from 19/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 37% | Draw 30% | Chornomorets 33%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 42%, Chornomorets 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (19 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Chornomorets's trading profile (19 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.63 PPG, Chornomorets 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inhulets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.