Kryvbas KR 2-2 SK Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava meet at Girnyk in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kryvbas KR at Girnyk this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SK Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Poltava away from home this season: 0W 1D 4L from 5 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Kryvbas KR's favour (1.90 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Kryvbas KR — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
SK Poltava — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kryvbas KR 60% and SK Poltava 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kryvbas KR 70% | SK Poltava 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.94 xG and SK Poltava 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.173 / defence 0.873 | SK Poltava attack 0.647 / defence 1.462. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.260. SK Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.462 — this is suppressing Kryvbas KR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Kryvbas KR games / 10 SK Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 66% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 12%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | SK Poltava 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 30% | SK Poltava 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Girnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 66% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 44% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.94 / SK Poltava 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.173 / def 0.873 | SK Poltava attack 0.647 / def 1.462 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.71
SK Poltava xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Girnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava?
Kryvbas KR 2 - 2 SK Poltava.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Girnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava part of?
Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 66% chance of winning, SK Poltava a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. SK Poltava (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against SK Poltava's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — SK Poltava's attack (0.65x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.58
12%
8.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.65
0.71
SK Poltava xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
8.10
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
2%
56.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.71 for SK Poltava, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 6W 1D 3L from 10 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SK Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 7L across 10 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for SK Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SK Poltava heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Poltava's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; SK Poltava are on 0.80 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SK Poltava in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
SK Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while SK Poltava have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or SK Poltava away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 2.25 PPG; SK Poltava away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
0
SK Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 0, SK Poltava have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when SK Poltava 3-3 Kryvbas KR.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SK Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 50%, SK Poltava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kryvbas KR) and 50% (SK Poltava).
On the defensive side: SK Poltava in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / SK Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play SK Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 50% of SK Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs SK Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 50% of SK Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SK Poltava in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR and SK Poltava finished level at 2-2 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.94 xG and SK Poltava 0.71 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SK Poltava outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against SK Poltava attack 0.65 / defence 1.46, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 66% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 12%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 70%, SK Poltava 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SK Poltava's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.