Kryvbas KR 1-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kryvbas KR face Obolon'-Brovar.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kryvbas KR welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Stadion Hirnyk in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 17 May 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kryvbas KR stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Obolon'-Brovar — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Obolon'-Brovar away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kryvbas KR 1.20 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Kryvbas KR, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Kryvbas KR 1–0 Obolon'-Brovar — a Kryvbas KR win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kryvbas KR trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 41% of Kryvbas KR's games and 28% of Obolon'-Brovar's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 43% | Obolon'-Brovar 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.54 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.174 / defence 0.988 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.919 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.022. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 58 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 58.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | Obolon'-Brovar 22%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.97 | Draw 3.70 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.52. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 40% (last 10 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | Obolon'-Brovar 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Kryvbas KR 1.54 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.174 / def 0.988 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.919 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Obolon'-Brovar xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar FAQs
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Kryvbas KR 1 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 51% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.17x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kryvbas KR's last 58 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.70
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.46
0.93
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
5%
21.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.93 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 29W 13D 16L from 58 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 26L across 58 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 15W 6D 8L from their last 29 home games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 6W 8D 15L across their last 29 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.62 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 28%.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Current Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Current Season
Kryvbas KR (Home) vs Obolon'-Brovar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kryvbas KR
Current Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Current Season
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar Form FAQs
What form are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 29W 13D 16L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 13W 19D 26L in their last 58 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.76 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kryvbas KR have won 4, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Obolon'-Brovar 0-0 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 41%, Obolon'-Brovar 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Kryvbas KR) and 41% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kryvbas KR vs Obolon'-Brovar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 31% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 41% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Obolon'-Brovar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 59% of Obolon'-Brovar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Obolon'-Brovar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.54 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | Obolon'-Brovar 22%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, Obolon'-Brovar 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.