Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Dynamo Kyiv (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi face Dynamo Kyiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv make the trip to Tonkocheyev Stadium to face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Tonkocheyev Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tonkocheyev Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dynamo Kyiv are 1.20 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in recent Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Dynamo Kyiv have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2026, ended 0–3 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dynamo Kyiv have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dynamo Kyiv — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% versus Dynamo Kyiv 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | Dynamo Kyiv 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.733 / defence 0.937 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.091 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.141. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 38 Dynamo Kyiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 31% | Draw 34% | Dynamo Kyiv 35%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.23 | Draw 2.94 | Dynamo Kyiv 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo Kyiv are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | Dynamo Kyiv 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Tonkocheyev Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 31% | Draw 34% | Dynamo Kyiv 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.10 / Dynamo Kyiv 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.733 / def 0.937 | Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.091 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Dynamo Kyiv xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027 at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv being played?
The match is being played at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 31% chance of winning, Dynamo Kyiv a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv?
Record (3 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Kyiv 3W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 0.73x the league average against Dynamo Kyiv's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dynamo Kyiv's attack (1.09x) against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
31%
3.19
34%
2.96
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.27
1.17
Dynamo Kyiv xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.17 for Dynamo Kyiv, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 11D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo Kyiv sit at 1.92 PPG from 38 outings (22W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo Kyiv have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Kyiv are on 2.03 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Dynamo Kyiv have gone 22W 7D 9L in their last 38 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Dynamo Kyiv away?
Dynamo Kyiv's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.11 PPG; Dynamo Kyiv away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Dynamo Kyiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Dynamo Kyiv in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Dynamo Kyiv have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo Kyiv won 4-0 on 27 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
3
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Dynamo Kyiv 3-0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 37%, Dynamo Kyiv 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 68% (Dynamo Kyiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Dynamo Kyiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Dynamo Kyiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 63% of Dynamo Kyiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Dynamo Kyiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's matches and 68% of Dynamo Kyiv's.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Dynamo Kyiv tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Dynamo Kyiv in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.