Dnipro-1 2-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 41%, yet in-form Dnipro-1 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Veres Rivne make the trip to Stadion Avanhard to face Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dnipro-1 have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 8W 0D 1L at Stadion Avanhard — 2.67 PPG. They are averaging 2.44 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Veres Rivne (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Veres Rivne have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Veres Rivne's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Dnipro-1. A 1.00 PPG lead over Veres Rivne (2.70 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dnipro-1 lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–0 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dnipro-1 half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dnipro-1 37% | Veres Rivne 26%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 63% | Veres Rivne 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.00 xG and Veres Rivne 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.084 / defence 0.988 | Veres Rivne attack 1.051 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.047 / away 1.184. Data: 19 Dnipro-1 games / 20 Veres Rivne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 30% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 41%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Veres Rivne 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dnipro-1 (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 44% | Veres Rivne 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (19 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 30% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Dnipro-1 1.00 / Veres Rivne 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.084 / def 0.988 | Veres Rivne attack 1.051 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.047 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Veres Rivne xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Dnipro-1 2 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 30% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne?
Record (1 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dnipro-1's attack rating (1.08) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (1.05x) against Dnipro-1's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (19/20 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
30%
3.35
29%
3.49
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.23
1.23
Veres Rivne xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.23 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 14W 1D 4L from 19 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 7L across 19 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Veres Rivne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Veres Rivne heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 8W 0D 1L from 9 games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.26 PPG overall — Dnipro-1 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.95 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 26%.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Veres Rivne in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Early Season
Veres Rivne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 14W 1D 4L in their last 19 games (2.26 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Veres Rivne away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.67 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dnipro-1
1
Draws
0
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 4, Veres Rivne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Veres Rivne 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Dnipro-1) and 22% (Veres Rivne) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dnipro-1) and 44% (Veres Rivne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 44%; Veres Rivne in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 22% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dnipro-1's matches and 44% of Veres Rivne's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Veres Rivne 2-0 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.00 xG and Veres Rivne 1.23 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dnipro-1 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Veres Rivne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Veres Rivne attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 19/20 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 30% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 41%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dnipro-1 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 63%, Veres Rivne 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.