Dnipro-1 2-0 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host Ruh Lviv at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: D W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 1W 1D 2L from 4 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ruh Lviv away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.75 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dnipro-1 register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Ruh Lviv in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dnipro-1 75% and Ruh Lviv 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dnipro-1 100% | Ruh Lviv 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.41 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.048 / defence 1.136 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.719 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.190. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Dnipro-1's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Dnipro-1 games / 4 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 43% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 22%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.33 | Draw 2.86 | Ruh Lviv 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dnipro-1 at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 75% | Ruh Lviv 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 43% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Dnipro-1 1.41 / Ruh Lviv 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.048 / def 1.136 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.719 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ruh Lviv xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Dnipro-1 2 - 0 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 43% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-W-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dnipro-1's attack at 1.05x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
43%
2.31
35%
2.89
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.38
0.97
Ruh Lviv xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
5%
18.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.97 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dnipro-1 have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Ruh Lviv in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Early Season
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dnipro-1's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 4, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Dnipro-1 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dnipro-1 at 75%, Ruh Lviv at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Dnipro-1 and 50% for Ruh Lviv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Ruh Lviv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dnipro-1's games and 75% of Ruh Lviv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Dnipro-1's matches and 50% of Ruh Lviv's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dnipro-1 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Ruh Lviv 2-0 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.41 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.97 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ruh Lviv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 43% | Draw 35% | Ruh Lviv 22%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 100%, Ruh Lviv 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Dnipro-1 conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.