Desna vs Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Desna at 37%, yet in-form Vorskla Poltava provide a compelling counter-argument — this Desna vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Desna host Vorskla Poltava at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 17 March 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Desna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Desna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Desna's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 3L across 9 games at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv this term (1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.56 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Desna are significantly better at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vorskla Poltava — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Desna, 0 for Vorskla Poltava and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Desna in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Desna 44% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Desna 56% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Desna 1.27 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Desna attack 0.972 / defence 1.265 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.821 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.220. Data: 18 Desna games / 18 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Desna 37% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 36%. Fair-value odds: Desna 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Vorskla Poltava 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Desna at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vorskla Poltava (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Desna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Desna 44% | Vorskla Poltava 62%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Desna vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Mar 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Desna 37% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Desna 1.27 / Vorskla Poltava 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Desna attack 0.972 / def 1.265 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.821 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Desna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Desna xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Vorskla Poltava xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Desna vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Desna vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 17 March 2022 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
Where is Desna vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv.
What competition is Desna vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Desna vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Desna vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Desna a 37% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Desna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Desna vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Desna and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Desna vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Desna 0W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 0W.
What form are Desna and Vorskla Poltava in?
Desna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Desna's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Desna's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Desna Win
37%
2.72
27%
3.74
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Desna xG
Total xG
2.54
1.27
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Desna vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Desna and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Desna and 1.27 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Desna vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Desna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 7W 4D 7L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Desna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 9W 6D 3L from 18 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Desna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Desna have posted 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Desna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Desna
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Desna and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Desna have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Desna at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Desna at home: 1.38 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Desna or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Desna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Desna and Vorskla Poltava runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Desna
1
Draws
0
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Desna and Vorskla Poltava?
From 1 meetings on record, Desna have won 0, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Desna and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2021, when Vorskla Poltava 2-2 Desna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Desna 50%, Vorskla Poltava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Desna) and 38% (Vorskla Poltava).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Desna home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Desna play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Desna's games and 62% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Desna vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Desna's recent games and 38% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Desna and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Desna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Desna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Desna and Vorskla Poltava finished level at 0-0 at Olimpiysʹkyy Navchalʹno-Sportyvnyy Tsentr Chernihiv, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Desna 1.27 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.27 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Desna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Desna attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.19, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Desna 37% | Draw 27% | Vorskla Poltava 36%, with Desna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Desna 56%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Desna's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Desna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.