Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava meet at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets at Stadion Chornomorets this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 3W 3D 2L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Vorskla Poltava arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Vorskla Poltava in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 61% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 72% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.24 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.958 / defence 1.361 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.824 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.224. Data: 18 Chornomorets games / 18 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 34% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 40%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Vorskla Poltava 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 60% | Vorskla Poltava 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 34% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Chornomorets 1.24 / Vorskla Poltava 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.958 / def 1.361 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.824 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Vorskla Poltava xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadion Chornomorets.
Where is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 34% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.82x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.81
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.61
1.37
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.37 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 3W 5D 10L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 9W 6D 3L from 18 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vorskla Poltava are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chornomorets.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Vorskla Poltava in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 10L in their last 18 games (0.78 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 9W 6D 3L in their last 18 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.12 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
1
Draws
5
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Chornomorets, 62% for Vorskla Poltava — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 38% (Vorskla Poltava).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Vorskla Poltava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Chornomorets's games and 62% of Vorskla Poltava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 38% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chornomorets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 28, as Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.24 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.37 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.96 / defence 1.36 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.18, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 34% | Draw 26% | Vorskla Poltava 40%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 72%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.