Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chornomorets face Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Chornomorets welcome Ruh Lviv to Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 26 April 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Chornomorets have gone 2W 0D 8L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Chornomorets are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 0.60 PPG versus Ruh Lviv's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chornomorets, 3 for Ruh Lviv and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Chornomorets 1–1 Ruh Lviv — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 44% versus Ruh Lviv 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 46% | Ruh Lviv 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chornomorets surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Ruh Lviv have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.97 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.821 / defence 1.025 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.921 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.010. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 55 games and Ruh Lviv's last 55.
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 34%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.88 | Draw 3.17 | Ruh Lviv 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Chornomorets's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 30% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Chornomorets 0.97 / Ruh Lviv 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.821 / def 1.025 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.921 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ruh Lviv xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Chornomorets 1 - 2 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 35% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.82) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chornomorets's last 55 games and Ruh Lviv's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.17
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.93
0.95
Ruh Lviv xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.95 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 15W 5D 35L from 55 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 14L across 55 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 11W 2D 13L from their last 26 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Chornomorets are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 10W 10D 6L across their last 26 away games, a 1.54 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Chornomorets (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chornomorets
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 15W 5D 35L in their last 55 games (0.91 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 19W 22D 14L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.35 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Chornomorets's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
2
Draws
4
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Chornomorets have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 35%, Ruh Lviv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chornomorets) and 35% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 38%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 31% of games; Ruh Lviv in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chornomorets vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chornomorets's recent games and 35% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 69% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Chornomorets 1-2 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.97 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.95 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ruh Lviv outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 1.02 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.92 / defence 1.00, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Ruh Lviv 34%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, Ruh Lviv 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.