Trabzonspor 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Yeni Malatyaspor at Medical Park Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 January 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Medical Park Stadyumu, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 0L this season (9 games, 2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Yeni Malatyaspor — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yeni Malatyaspor away from home this season: 2W 1D 6L from 9 away games — 0.78 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
On current form, Trabzonspor have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Yeni Malatyaspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 5–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Yeni Malatyaspor in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 58% | Yeni Malatyaspor 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.37 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.113 / defence 0.816 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.491 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.109. Data: 19 Trabzonspor games / 19 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 59% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 11%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.69 | Draw 3.33 | Yeni Malatyaspor 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (59%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Yeni Malatyaspor's lower xG of 0.44 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 28% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 56% | Yeni Malatyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jan 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 59% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 28% | xG Trabzonspor 1.37 / Yeni Malatyaspor 0.44 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.113 / def 0.816 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.491 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.44
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
28%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 7 January 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 59% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 11% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 0 | Yeni Malatyaspor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.11x the league average against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Yeni Malatyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.6%), 2-0 (15.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
59%
1.69
30%
3.36
11%
9.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
1.81
0.44
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
9.07
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.62
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
64%
1.56
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
38%
2.63
3%
35.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.3 | 9.9 | 2.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.44 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 19 games, going 14W 4D 1L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 0.79 PPG from 19 outings (4W 3D 12L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.63 PPG clear of Yeni Malatyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 6W 3D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Yeni Malatyaspor have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 0.84 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 14W 4D 1L in their last 19 games (2.42 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Yeni Malatyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Yeni Malatyaspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Yeni Malatyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Yeni Malatyaspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2022, when Trabzonspor 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Yeni Malatyaspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Trabzonspor 56% BTTS, Yeni Malatyaspor 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 56% for Trabzonspor and 11% for Yeni Malatyaspor.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Yeni Malatyaspor in 33%; Yeni Malatyaspor in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 0% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 11% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.37 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 0.44 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.49 / defence 1.06, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 59% | Draw 30% | Yeni Malatyaspor 11%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 58%, Yeni Malatyaspor 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.