Trabzonspor 2-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 23 January 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trabzonspor have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Trabzonspor's favour (2.10 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 3W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 57% and Kasımpaşa 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 52% | Kasımpaşa 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.85 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.285 / defence 0.955 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.837 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.287. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Trabzonspor games / 54 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 18%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Kasımpaşa 5.56. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jan 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Trabzonspor 1.85 / Kasımpaşa 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.285 / def 0.955 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.837 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Kasımpaşa xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 23 January 2026 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor 2 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 53% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (8 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 3 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (0.84x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
53%
1.87
29%
3.44
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.88
1.03
Kasımpaşa xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
3%
36.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.03 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 24W 17D 13L from 54 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 14W 21D 19L across 54 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 15W 9D 3L from 27 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 9W 9D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.41 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 63%.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 24W 17D 13L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 14W 21D 19L in their last 54 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
4
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 56%, Kasımpaşa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Trabzonspor) and 63% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Trabzonspor's games and 56% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Trabzonspor's matches and 63% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Kasımpaşa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kasımpaşa 2-1 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.85 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.03 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.28 / defence 0.95 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 53% | Draw 29% | Kasımpaşa 18%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 52%, Kasımpaşa 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.