Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Fenerbahçe at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor's home record at Papara Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Fenerbahçe have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fenerbahçe — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Fenerbahçe have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Trabzonspor's 3 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–3 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 70% and Fenerbahçe 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Fenerbahçe 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.35 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.068 / defence 0.994 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.160 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Trabzonspor games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 36% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 39%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Fenerbahçe 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 80% | Fenerbahçe 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 36% | Draw 26% | Fenerbahçe 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Trabzonspor 1.35 / Fenerbahçe 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.068 / def 0.994 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.160 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Fenerbahçe xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 36% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (10 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 6W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.07x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
36%
2.79
26%
3.92
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.75
1.40
Fenerbahçe xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.40 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 37 games, going 21W 10D 6L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.16 PPG from 37 outings (23W 11D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.97 PPG, Fenerbahçe on 2.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 10W 6D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.06 points per game from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.27 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 21W 10D 6L in their last 37 games (1.97 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 23W 11D 3L in their last 37 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fenerbahçe go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
6
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 3, Fenerbahçe have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 2-3 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 67%, Fenerbahçe 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 67% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Trabzonspor's games and 50% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Trabzonspor's matches and 67% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Trabzonspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.