Trabzonspor 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Antalyaspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 4, Antalyaspor 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 53% versus Antalyaspor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 50% | Antalyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.50 xG and Antalyaspor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.063 / defence 0.922 | Antalyaspor attack 0.837 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.251. Data: 38 Trabzonspor games / 38 Antalyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Antalyaspor 4.17. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Antalyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Trabzonspor 1.50 / Antalyaspor 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.063 / def 0.922 | Antalyaspor attack 0.837 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Antalyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 50% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.06x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.85
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.47
0.97
Antalyaspor xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.97 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 12D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (14W 8D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.50 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.05 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Early Season
Antalyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 53%, Antalyaspor 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Trabzonspor) and 53% (Antalyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 47% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Trabzonspor's matches and 53% of Antalyaspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.50 xG and Antalyaspor 0.97 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.92 against Antalyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 50% | Draw 26% | Antalyaspor 24%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 50%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.