Trabzonspor 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Antalyaspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Trabzonspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Antalyaspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 1.30 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Antalyaspor 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 57% versus Antalyaspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 63% | Antalyaspor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.01 xG and Antalyaspor 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.226 / defence 0.857 | Antalyaspor attack 0.814 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.438. Data: 35 Trabzonspor games / 36 Antalyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 18%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Antalyaspor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 50% | Antalyaspor 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Trabzonspor 2.01 / Antalyaspor 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.226 / def 0.857 | Antalyaspor attack 0.814 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Antalyaspor xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 61% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.23x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.74
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.01
1.00
Antalyaspor xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
2%
40.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.00 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 35 games, going 16W 6D 13L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. Trabzonspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.17 PPG from 35 outings (11W 8D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. Antalyaspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.54 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 12W 4D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Pre-Season
Antalyaspor
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 16W 6D 13L in their last 35 games (1.54 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.22 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2025, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Antalyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 39%, Antalyaspor 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trabzonspor) and 28% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 39% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 28% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.01 xG and Antalyaspor 1.00 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.23 / defence 0.86 against Antalyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 35/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 21% | Antalyaspor 18%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 63%, Antalyaspor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.54 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.