Trabzonspor 4-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Adana Demirspor at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Trabzonspor have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Trabzonspor, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 2–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor trading profile (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 61% versus Adana Demirspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Adana Demirspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.56 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.092 / defence 0.694 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.004 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.309. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.694 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Trabzonspor games / 61 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 52% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Adana Demirspor 4.55. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 30% | Adana Demirspor 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 52% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Trabzonspor 1.56 / Adana Demirspor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.092 / def 0.694 | Adana Demirspor attack 1.004 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Adana Demirspor xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Trabzonspor 4 - 1 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 52% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (3 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.09x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.92
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.47
0.91
Adana Demirspor xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
5%
21.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.91 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 61 games, going 34W 17D 10L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.59 PPG from 61 outings (26W 19D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.95 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 20W 10D 1L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.29 points per game from 31 outings (10W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 34W 17D 10L in their last 61 games (1.95 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 26W 19D 16L in their last 61 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.26 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 52%, Adana Demirspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Trabzonspor) and 58% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Trabzonspor's games and 64% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 58% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Adana Demirspor 4-1 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.56 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.91 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.69 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 52% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 22%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Adana Demirspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.95 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.