Sivasspor 0-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 38%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sivasspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Samsunspor travel to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor in Süper Lig (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sivasspor stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sivasspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Samsunspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2024, ended Sivasspor 0–2 Samsunspor — a Samsunspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 58% versus Samsunspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 53% | Samsunspor 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sivasspor surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.56 xG and Samsunspor 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.948 / defence 1.068 | Samsunspor attack 1.191 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.184. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 54 games and Samsunspor's last 53.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.66 | Draw 3.69 | Samsunspor 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.51) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Sivasspor 1.56 / Samsunspor 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.948 / def 1.068 | Samsunspor attack 1.191 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Samsunspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sivasspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Sivasspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 21 December 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 38% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sivasspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sivasspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.95) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sivasspor's last 54 games and Samsunspor's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.69
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.51
Samsunspor xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sivasspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.51 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 19W 14D 20L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Samsunspor's form line: 20W 12D 21L from 53 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.34 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 26 home games (10W 9D 7L).
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 6W 5D 15L from their last 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.34 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Sivasspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sivasspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Sivasspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Sivasspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Sivasspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sivasspor have won 0, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: Samsunspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 58%, Samsunspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sivasspor) and 50% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Samsunspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sivasspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sivasspor and Samsunspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sivasspor's games and 54% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sivasspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sivasspor's recent games and 50% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 69% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, as Sivasspor and Samsunspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.56 xG and Samsunspor 1.51 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Samsunspor attack 1.19 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 53%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.34 PPG, Samsunspor 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.