Sivasspor 1-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 1 as Sivasspor welcome Gaziantep FK to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sivasspor haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sivasspor's home record at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gaziantep FK haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Gaziantep FK have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Sivasspor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–5 with Gaziantep FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 66% versus Gaziantep FK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 53% | Gaziantep FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.76 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.968 / defence 0.985 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.877 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.345. Data: 38 Sivasspor games / 38 Gaziantep FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 49% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 23%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Gaziantep FK 4.35. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 80% | Gaziantep FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 49% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Sivasspor 1.76 / Gaziantep FK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.968 / def 0.985 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.877 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Gaziantep FK xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Sivasspor 1 - 1 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 49% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (2 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 1 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sivasspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
49%
2.02
27%
3.67
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.92
1.16
Gaziantep FK xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
4%
24.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.16 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 12D 12L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. Sivasspor haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (12W 10D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. Gaziantep FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.42 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 7W 8D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 0.32 points per game from 19 outings (1W 3D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.26 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Pre-Season
Gaziantep FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2022, when Gaziantep FK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 63%, Gaziantep FK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sivasspor) and 58% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sivasspor's games and 47% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sivasspor's recent games and 58% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, as Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.76 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.88 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 49% | Draw 27% | Gaziantep FK 23%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 53%, Gaziantep FK 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.42 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.