Sivasspor 4-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — All Games: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sivasspor have posted 0W 2D 1L at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 3W 2D 1L from 6 Süper Lig matches — 1.83 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fatih Karagümrük are 0.83 PPG ahead (1.83 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 67% versus Fatih Karagümrük 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.17 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.868 / defence 1.262 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.942 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.076. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Sivasspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Sivasspor games / 6 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 39%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 67% | Fatih Karagümrük 33%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 34% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sivasspor 1.17 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.868 / def 1.262 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.942 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Fatih Karagümrük xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Sivasspor 4 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 34% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.87) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.67
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.45
1.28
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.28 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 3D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fatih Karagümrük's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fatih Karagümrük come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.83 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fatih Karagümrük's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 0.67 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 67%, Fatih Karagümrük 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Sivasspor and 33% for Fatih Karagümrük.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 33%; Sivasspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sivasspor's recent games and 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 4-0 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.17 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.28 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 34% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 39%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 33%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Sivasspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.