Sivasspor 0-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eyüpspor make the trip to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to face Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Form
Sivasspor (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's home record at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
Eyüpspor have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Sivasspor, 2.00 for Eyüpspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.35 xG and Eyüpspor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.846 / defence 0.801 | Eyüpspor attack 0.837 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.274. Data: 40 Sivasspor games / 2 Eyüpspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 46% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Eyüpspor 4.76. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 46% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Sivasspor 1.35 / Eyüpspor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.846 / def 0.801 | Eyüpspor attack 0.837 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Eyüpspor xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 46% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sivasspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Eyüpspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Eyüpspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eyüpspor's attack (0.84x) against Sivasspor's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.09
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.20
0.85
Eyüpspor xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.85 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Sivasspor against 2.00 for Eyüpspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sivasspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Eyüpspor's attacking output running into Sivasspor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor in 100%.
Defensively: Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Sivasspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
0
Draws
2
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Eyüpspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Eyüpspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Eyüpspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Eyüpspor?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sivasspor's games and 100% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sivasspor's recent games and 50% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Eyüpspor defy the odds to beat Sivasspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor beat Sivasspor 0-1 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.35 xG and Eyüpspor 0.85 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sivasspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.80 against Eyüpspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 46% | Draw 32% | Eyüpspor 21%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Eyüpspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 50%, Eyüpspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 2.00 PPG, Eyüpspor 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eyüpspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Eyüpspor managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.