Sivasspor 2-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 9 as Sivasspor welcome Antalyaspor to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.12 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 2W 2D 4L from 8 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.12 PPG (Sivasspor) versus 1.00 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Antalyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 50% | Antalyaspor 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.37 xG and Antalyaspor 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 1.050 / defence 1.114 | Antalyaspor attack 0.583 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.105. Data: 8 Sivasspor games / 8 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Antalyaspor 5.00. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 50% | Antalyaspor 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 52% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Sivasspor 1.37 / Antalyaspor 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 1.050 / def 1.114 | Antalyaspor attack 0.583 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Antalyaspor xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Sivasspor 2 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 52% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sivasspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (1.05) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.57
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.08
0.72
Antalyaspor xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
5%
19.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.2 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.72 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 2W 3D 3L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor's form line: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.12 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sivasspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sivasspor
2
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sivasspor 67% BTTS, Antalyaspor 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Sivasspor and 0% for Antalyaspor.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 33%; Antalyaspor in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 0% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Sivasspor's recent games and 0% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sivasspor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Antalyaspor finished level at 2-2 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.37 xG and Antalyaspor 0.72 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Antalyaspor attack 0.58 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 52% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 20%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 50%, Antalyaspor 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.12 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.