Sivasspor 1-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Adana Demirspor travel to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's home record at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Adana Demirspor are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for Adana Demirspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sivasspor 65% and Adana Demirspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 54% | Adana Demirspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.22 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.024 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.997 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.365. Data: 57 Sivasspor games / 57 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 32% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Adana Demirspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Adana Demirspor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Adana Demirspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sivasspor 70% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 32% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Sivasspor 1.22 / Adana Demirspor 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.860 / def 1.024 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.997 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Adana Demirspor xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Sivasspor 1 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 32% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (3 meetings): Sivasspor 1W | Draws 1 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.68
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.39
Adana Demirspor xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.39 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 18D 21L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.56 PPG from 57 outings (24W 17D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.26 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sivasspor's home form reads 8W 13D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (9W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 18W 18D 21L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 24W 17D 16L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2025, when Sivasspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
2
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Sivasspor 5-1 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 64%, Adana Demirspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sivasspor) and 61% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 61% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sivasspor's recent games and 61% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Adana Demirspor edge out Sivasspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Sivasspor 1-2 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.22 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.39 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Adana Demirspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 32% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 40%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 54%, Adana Demirspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.26 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.