Samsunspor 2-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Samsunspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Samsunspor welcome Sivasspor to Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Samsunspor have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Samsunspor have gone 4W 2D 3L this season (9 games, 1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sivasspor — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Samsunspor) versus 1.50 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Samsunspor register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Sivasspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Samsunspor, 0 for Sivasspor and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Samsunspor trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Samsunspor 63% and Sivasspor 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 53% | Sivasspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.51 xG and Sivasspor 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.910 / defence 1.036 | Sivasspor attack 1.110 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.257. Data: 19 Samsunspor games / 55 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 37% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Sivasspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Samsunspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 67% | Sivasspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 37% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Samsunspor 1.51 / Sivasspor 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.910 / def 1.036 | Sivasspor attack 1.110 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Sivasspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Samsunspor 2 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 37% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Samsunspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Samsunspor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Samsunspor and Sivasspor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.91x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.56
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.96
1.45
Sivasspor xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.45 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 5W 3D 11L from 19 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 6L across 19 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Samsunspor on 0.95 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 4W 1D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Samsunspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 5W 3D 11L in their last 19 games (0.95 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.56 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Samsunspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
2
Draws
0
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Sivasspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Samsunspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Sivasspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Samsunspor at 67%, Sivasspor at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Samsunspor and 67% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Samsunspor's games and 67% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Samsunspor's matches and 67% of Sivasspor's.
Do Samsunspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sivasspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Sivasspor 2-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.51 xG and Sivasspor 1.45 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sivasspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Sivasspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 37% | Draw 28% | Sivasspor 34%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 53%, Sivasspor 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 0.95 PPG, Sivasspor 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.