Samsunspor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Samsunspor host Başakşehir at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Samsunspor — All Games: 0W 1D 6L from 7 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.14 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Başakşehir — 1.16 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.14). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 57% versus Başakşehir 14%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 43% | Başakşehir 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.742 / defence 1.313 | Başakşehir attack 0.829 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.214. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Samsunspor games / 44 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 41%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Başakşehir 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 57% | Başakşehir 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 26% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Samsunspor 1.01 / Başakşehir 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.742 / def 1.313 | Başakşehir attack 0.829 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Başakşehir xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Samsunspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Samsunspor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Samsunspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Samsunspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 26% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Samsunspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Samsunspor and Başakşehir in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.74) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Samsunspor's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
26%
3.83
32%
3.09
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.33
1.32
Başakşehir xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
7%
14.34
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.32 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Samsunspor have picked up 0.14 PPG on a 0W 1D 6L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Samsunspor.
The Goals Picture
Samsunspor are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 0.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir in 14%.
Defensively: Başakşehir in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 games (0.14 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Have Samsunspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Samsunspor and Başakşehir runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Başakşehir won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Samsunspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Samsunspor
1
Draws
4
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Başakşehir?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 1, Başakşehir have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Başakşehir 3-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 57%, Başakşehir 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Samsunspor) and 29% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 43%; Samsunspor have failed to score in 43% of games; Başakşehir in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 14% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Samsunspor's recent games and 29% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Samsunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, as Samsunspor and Başakşehir drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.01 xG and Başakşehir 1.32 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.74 / defence 1.31 against Başakşehir attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 7/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 26% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 41%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 43%, Başakşehir 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Samsunspor conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.