Samsunspor 1-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Samsunspor face Adana Demirspor.

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Full Analysis

Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Samsunspor have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Samsunspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Samsunspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Adana Demirspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Adana Demirspor have gone 0W 5D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Samsunspor, 0.90 for Adana Demirspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Samsunspor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Samsunspor 3–2 Adana Demirspor — a Samsunspor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 53% versus Adana Demirspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 41% | Adana Demirspor 56%). Note also that Adana Demirspor surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.50 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.906 / defence 0.808 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.969 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.237. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 32 games and Adana Demirspor's last 68.

Result probabilities: Samsunspor 47% | Draw 30% | Adana Demirspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.11 | Draw 3.31 | Adana Demirspor 4.48. Samsunspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Samsunspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 30% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games).

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