Rizespor 1-0 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host İstanbulspor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Rizespor have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rizespor at home: 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from their last 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
İstanbulspor — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
İstanbulspor away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
İstanbulspor in-play and half-time data (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 46% versus İstanbulspor 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 46% | İstanbulspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.15 xG and İstanbulspor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.628 / defence 0.854 | İstanbulspor attack 0.791 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.250. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. İstanbulspor's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rizespor's projected output up. İstanbulspor's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Rizespor's last 11 games and İstanbulspor's last 47.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 41% | Draw 34% | İstanbulspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.45 | Draw 2.94 | İstanbulspor 3.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 5 home games and İstanbulspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 20% (last 5 home games) | İstanbulspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 12 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 41% | Draw 34% | İstanbulspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Rizespor 1.15 / İstanbulspor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.628 / def 0.854 | İstanbulspor attack 0.791 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.84
İstanbulspor xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs İstanbulspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Rizespor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs İstanbulspor?
Rizespor 1 - 0 İstanbulspor.
Where is Rizespor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Rizespor vs İstanbulspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 12) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 41% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Rizespor and İstanbulspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Rizespor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.63) and İstanbulspor's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, İstanbulspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 11 games and İstanbulspor's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
41%
2.45
34%
2.94
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Rizespor xG
Total xG
1.99
0.84
İstanbulspor xG
2.45
41%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs İstanbulspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.84 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 2D 5L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
İstanbulspor's form line: 1W 2D 8L from 11 games, 0.45 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Rizespor are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against İstanbulspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 5 home games (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, İstanbulspor have gone 0W 1D 4L from their last 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 0.82 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: İstanbulspor in 64%.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
Rizespor (Home) vs İstanbulspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
İstanbulspor
Blended
❓ Rizespor vs İstanbulspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.60 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Rizespor
0
Draws
0
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs İstanbulspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and İstanbulspor?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 April 2024: İstanbulspor 0-4 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and İstanbulspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 20%, İstanbulspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Rizespor and 40% for İstanbulspor.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 40% of games; İstanbulspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs İstanbulspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and İstanbulspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Rizespor's recent matches and 60% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and İstanbulspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rizespor's recent games and 40% of İstanbulspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and İstanbulspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Rizespor's recent matches and 80% of İstanbulspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out İstanbulspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat İstanbulspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.15 xG and İstanbulspor 0.84 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. İstanbulspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.63 / defence 0.85 against İstanbulspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 11/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 41% | Draw 34% | İstanbulspor 25%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 46%, İstanbulspor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.45. That form edge translated into the three points. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.