Rizespor 1-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Samsunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Samsunspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Rizespor's record over their last 7 games: 3W 2D 2L (1.57 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings (29%).
In front of their own supporters, Rizespor have posted 1W 2D 0L from their last 3 home games — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Samsunspor (all games): 0W 1D 5L across their last 6 — 0.17 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.83 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across their last 4 road games (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Rizespor. A 1.40 PPG lead over Samsunspor (1.57 vs 0.17) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 6 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 6 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 50% versus Samsunspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 50% | Samsunspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.39 xG and Samsunspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.692 / defence 0.863 | Samsunspor attack 0.863 / defence 1.372. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.264. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.39. Samsunspor's defence rating of 1.372 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rizespor's projected output up. Data: built from Rizespor's last 7 games and Samsunspor's last 6.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 44% | Draw 35% | Samsunspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.30 | Draw 2.87 | Samsunspor 4.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 3 home games and Samsunspor's last 4 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 33% (last 3 home games) | Samsunspor 75% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 8 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 44% | Draw 35% | Samsunspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Rizespor 1.39 / Samsunspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.692 / def 0.863 | Samsunspor attack 0.863 / def 1.372 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Samsunspor xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Samsunspor part of?
Rizespor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 8) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 44% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Samsunspor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Rizespor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.69) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.86x) against Rizespor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 7 games and Samsunspor's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
44%
2.30
35%
2.87
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
Samsunspor xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.94 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 6 games, going 3W 2D 1L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 0.17 PPG from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.66 PPG clear of Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across their last 3 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.00 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 0.83 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor in 67%.
Last 6 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Early Season
Samsunspor
Early Season
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 games (1.83 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 (0.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Samsunspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.67 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won Samsunspor 3-0 Rizespor on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Samsunspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 3, Samsunspor have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 33%, Samsunspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Rizespor and 67% for Samsunspor.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 33% of games; Samsunspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 67% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Rizespor's recent games and 67% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Rizespor's recent matches and 100% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Samsunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Samsunspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.39 xG and Samsunspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.69 / defence 0.86 against Samsunspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 44% | Draw 35% | Samsunspor 22%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 50%, Samsunspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.