Rizespor 5-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Thursday 21 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Rizespor, 1.00 for Pendikspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 47% versus Pendikspor 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 40% | Pendikspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.62 xG and Pendikspor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.811 / defence 0.955 | Pendikspor attack 0.936 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.266. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Rizespor games / 15 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 48% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Pendikspor 3.85. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 29% | Pendikspor 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 48% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Rizespor 1.62 / Pendikspor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.811 / def 0.955 | Pendikspor attack 0.936 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Pendikspor xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Pendikspor?
Rizespor 5 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Pendikspor part of?
Rizespor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 48% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rizespor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Pendikspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Pendikspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Pendikspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.81x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.94x) against Rizespor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.93
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.76
1.13
Pendikspor xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.13 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Pendikspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 6W 4D 5L from 15 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 8L across 15 games — 0.87 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rizespor by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Pendikspor's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.07 scored and 2.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 games (1.47 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 3W 4D 8L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Pendikspor away?
Rizespor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.00 PPG; Pendikspor away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rizespor
0
Draws
1
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Pendikspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Pendikspor 2-1 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 29%, Pendikspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 14% (Rizespor) and 71% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 29% of games; Pendikspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Pendikspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Rizespor's recent matches and 71% of Pendikspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Rizespor's recent games and 71% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Pendikspor 5-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.62 xG and Pendikspor 1.13 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.81 / defence 0.95 against Pendikspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.28, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 48% | Draw 25% | Pendikspor 26%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 40%, Pendikspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pendikspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Pendikspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.