Rizespor vs Beşiktaş – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Beşiktaş meet at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's home record at : 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Rizespor against 1.40 for Beşiktaş. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Rizespor's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Beşiktaş 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Beşiktaş 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.21 xG and Beşiktaş 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.927 / defence 1.097 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Rizespor games / 37 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 37%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Beşiktaş 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 36% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Rizespor 1.21 / Beşiktaş 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.927 / def 1.097 | Beşiktaş attack 0.933 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Beşiktaş xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 36% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Record (8 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 4W.
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.93x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.93x) against Rizespor's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
36%
2.81
27%
3.67
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.46
1.25
Beşiktaş xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.25 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 11D 14L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.78 PPG from 37 outings (19W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 8W 3D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.78 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.50 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 44%, Beşiktaş 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rizespor) and 44% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Beşiktaş in 33%; Rizespor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rizespor's recent matches and 44% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Rizespor's recent games and 44% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.