Rizespor 2-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Alanyaspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Rizespor's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Rizespor trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Alanyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 73% | Alanyaspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.07 xG and Alanyaspor 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.833 / defence 1.349 | Alanyaspor attack 0.874 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.133. Data: 11 Rizespor games / 11 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 43%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Alanyaspor 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 60% | Alanyaspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Rizespor 1.07 / Alanyaspor 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.833 / def 1.349 | Alanyaspor attack 0.874 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Alanyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Rizespor 2 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 30% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Alanyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
30%
3.34
27%
3.66
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.41
1.34
Alanyaspor xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.34 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 1D 9L for 0.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.91 PPG from 11 outings (6W 3D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.55 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rizespor's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.36 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.64 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 games (0.36 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 0.80 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Rizespor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
3
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 60%, Alanyaspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rizespor) and 40% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rizespor's games and 60% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rizespor's recent games and 40% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Alanyaspor 2-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.07 xG and Alanyaspor 1.34 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.83 / defence 1.35 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 30% | Draw 27% | Alanyaspor 43%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 73%, Alanyaspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.36. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.