Pendikspor 2-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Sivasspor travel to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to take on Pendikspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pendikspor stand at 0W 4D 3L from 7 Süper Lig matches — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pendikspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pendikspor's home record at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu: 0W 2D 1L from 3 Süper Lig appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sivasspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sivasspor are 0.53 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.57), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Pendikspor trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 86% and Sivasspor 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pendikspor 43% | Sivasspor 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.21 xG and Sivasspor 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.793 / defence 1.389 | Sivasspor attack 1.001 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.265. Pendikspor's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Pendikspor games / 43 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 23% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 47%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Sivasspor 2.13. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.21 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 100% | Sivasspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 23% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Pendikspor 1.21 / Sivasspor 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.793 / def 1.389 | Sivasspor attack 1.001 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Sivasspor xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Sivasspor?
Pendikspor 2 - 3 Sivasspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Pendikspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 23% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pendikspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pendikspor and Sivasspor in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.79) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Pendikspor's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
23%
4.35
30%
3.33
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
2.96
1.76
Sivasspor xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
4%
25.23
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.76 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 0W 4D 3L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pendikspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 2L across 7 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sivasspor by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pendikspor are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Early Season
Sivasspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Sivasspor's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.67 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pendikspor and Sivasspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
0
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Sivasspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 0, Sivasspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Sivasspor 4-1 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pendikspor at 100%, Sivasspor at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Pendikspor and 33% for Sivasspor.
On the defensive side: Sivasspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Pendikspor's games and 67% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pendikspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pendikspor's recent games and 33% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Pendikspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Pendikspor 2-3 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.21 xG and Sivasspor 1.76 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sivasspor outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.39 against Sivasspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 7/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 23% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 47%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 43%, Sivasspor 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 79%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sivasspor arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.57. Form held, and they took the win. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.