Pendikspor 1-2 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pendikspor face Kayserispor.

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Analysis

Kayserispor make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Pendikspor (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pendikspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Kayserispor have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Kayserispor have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Pendikspor against 1.00 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Kayserispor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Pendikspor 0–2 Kayserispor — a Kayserispor win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 64% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Kayserispor 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pendikspor surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Kayserispor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.886 / defence 1.241 | Kayserispor attack 0.806 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.224. Pendikspor's defence rating of 1.241 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kayserispor's projected output up. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 33 games and Kayserispor's last 69.

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 39% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 31%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.58 | Draw 3.34 | Kayserispor 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Pendikspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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