Pendikspor 0-5 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Fenerbahçe make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

Pendikspor (all games): 1W 4D 4L across their last 9 — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Pendikspor at home: 0W 2D 2L from their last 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Fenerbahçe's record over their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.50 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 2.22 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.78) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Trading Data

Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 89% and Fenerbahçe 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 56% | Fenerbahçe 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 0.77 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.867 / defence 1.476 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.116 / defence 0.609. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.164. Fenerbahçe bring a tight defence (rating 0.609, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pendikspor's projected output down. Pendikspor's defence rating of 1.476 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fenerbahçe's projected output up. Data: built from Pendikspor's last 9 games and Fenerbahçe's last 45.

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 62%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 8.17 | Draw 3.94 | Fenerbahçe 1.60. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pendikspor's last 4 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pendikspor 100% (last 4 home games) | Fenerbahçe 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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