Çorum FK 2-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Çorum FK vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Corum Stadyumu to face Çorum FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Çorum FK have collected 1.43 PPG across 7 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.29 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Çorum FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Çorum FK at Corum Stadyumu this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.43 for Çorum FK, 1.40 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Çorum FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Çorum FK 57% versus Rizespor 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Çorum FK 86% | Rizespor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Çorum FK 1.19 xG and Rizespor 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Çorum FK attack 0.829 / defence 1.094 | Rizespor attack 1.096 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.241. Data: 7 Çorum FK games / 41 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Çorum FK 30% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 44%. Fair-value odds: Çorum FK 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Rizespor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Çorum FK 33% | Rizespor 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Çorum FK vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Corum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Çorum FK 30% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Çorum FK 1.19 / Rizespor 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Çorum FK attack 0.829 / def 1.094 | Rizespor attack 1.096 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Çorum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Rizespor xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Çorum FK vs Rizespor kick off?
Çorum FK vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Corum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Çorum FK vs Rizespor?
Çorum FK 2 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Çorum FK vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Corum Stadyumu.
What competition is Çorum FK vs Rizespor part of?
Çorum FK vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Çorum FK vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Çorum FK a 30% chance of winning, Rizespor a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Çorum FK vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Çorum FK and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Çorum FK vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Rizespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Çorum FK and Rizespor in?
Çorum FK (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Çorum FK's attack at 0.83x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (1.10x) against Çorum FK's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
30%
3.30
26%
3.90
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Çorum FK xG
Total xG
2.68
1.49
Rizespor xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
7%
14.62
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Çorum FK vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Çorum FK and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Çorum FK and 1.49 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Çorum FK vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Çorum FK's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Çorum FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 3L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Çorum FK against 1.43 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Çorum FK have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Rizespor's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Rizespor travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Çorum FK are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor in 29%.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Çorum FK
Early Season
Rizespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Çorum FK and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Çorum FK have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Çorum FK at home or Rizespor away?
Rizespor's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Çorum FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Çorum FK
0
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Çorum FK and Rizespor?
From 1 meetings on record, Çorum FK have won 1, Rizespor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Çorum FK and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Çorum FK 2-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Çorum FK and Rizespor?
Çorum FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Çorum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Çorum FK 33%, Rizespor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Çorum FK and 67% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Çorum FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor in 33%; Çorum FK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Çorum FK home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Çorum FK play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Çorum FK's recent matches and 67% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Çorum FK vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Çorum FK's matches and 67% of Rizespor's.
Do Çorum FK and Rizespor tend to score early?
Çorum FK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Çorum FK defy the odds to beat Rizespor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Çorum FK beat Rizespor 2-1 at Corum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Çorum FK 1.19 xG and Rizespor 1.49 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Çorum FK beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Çorum FK attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Rizespor attack 1.10 / defence 0.92, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Çorum FK 30% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 44%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Çorum FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Çorum FK 86%, Rizespor 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Çorum FK's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Çorum FK 1.43 PPG, Rizespor 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Çorum FK win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.