Ümraniyespor 1-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ümraniyespor host Kasımpaşa at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 outings — a 0.33 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ümraniyespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ümraniyespor at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Kasımpaşa's 1.20 PPG return is 0.87 points per game ahead of Ümraniyespor's 0.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Ümraniyespor in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ümraniyespor 33% | Kasımpaşa 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ümraniyespor 17% | Kasımpaşa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ümraniyespor 0.70 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ümraniyespor attack 0.505 / defence 1.002 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.059 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.266. Ümraniyespor's attack strength of 0.505 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Ümraniyespor games / 44 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 20% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 52%. Fair-value odds: Ümraniyespor 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 1.92. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ümraniyespor 0% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ümraniyespor 20% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Ümraniyespor 0.70 / Kasımpaşa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ümraniyespor attack 0.505 / def 1.002 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.059 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Ümraniyespor xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Kasımpaşa xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Ümraniyespor 1 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Ümraniyespor a 20% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa in?
Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-2D-4L in 6 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ümraniyespor's attack at 0.51x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Ümraniyespor's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
20%
5.10
28%
3.53
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Ümraniyespor xG
Total xG
2.05
1.34
Kasımpaşa xG
5.10
20%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
5%
19.51
26%
3.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 17.3 | 11.6 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.34 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ümraniyespor's recent record stands at 0W 2D 4L from 6 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 4L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kasımpaşa by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ümraniyespor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ümraniyespor have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ümraniyespor are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 0.83 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ümraniyespor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 games (0.33 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ümraniyespor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Kasımpaşa's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ümraniyespor at home: 0.00 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ümraniyespor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ümraniyespor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ümraniyespor
1
Draws
1
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa?
From 2 meetings on record, Ümraniyespor have won 0, Kasımpaşa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Ümraniyespor.
Who has won more matches between Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ümraniyespor tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ümraniyespor 0% BTTS, Kasımpaşa 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Ümraniyespor and 33% for Kasımpaşa.
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa in 33%; Ümraniyespor have failed to score in 100% of games; Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ümraniyespor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ümraniyespor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Ümraniyespor's recent matches and 0% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ümraniyespor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ümraniyespor's recent games and 33% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ümraniyespor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Ümraniyespor have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Ümraniyespor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Ümraniyespor 1-2 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ümraniyespor 0.70 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ümraniyespor attack 0.51 / defence 1.00 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ümraniyespor 20% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 52%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ümraniyespor 17%, Kasımpaşa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kasımpaşa arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.